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Interview with AUCC Chairperson Carolyn Lamm Before 2012 Uzbekistan-US Annual Business Forum

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Central Asian gas export potential

11 October 2012

http://www.energyglobal.com of 10/11/2012 - Wood Mackenzie has presented its long-term forecast for potential gas exports from Central Asia; Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The region has significant long-term export potential into multiple markets, however, its export outlook remains uncertain due to political, financial, competitive and technical challenges.

In order for Central Asia to realise its long-term potential of total exports of over 120 billion m3 by 2020, multiple phases of the giant South Iolotan (Galkynysh) project in Turkmenistan must be developed efficiently.  Delays to the production ramp-up at the South Iolotan field will have a substantial impact on the global gas market.

Stephen O'Rourke, Senior Gas Supply Analyst for Wood Mackenzie, said, "Central Asia's geographic position and production potential makes it a possible supplier to multiple markets. Of all of the export markets available to Central Asia, Wood Mackenzie believes that the one with the greatest potential is China via the Trans-Asian pipeline. Our view is that China will require additional imports over and above Central Asia's current contract of around 45 billion m3 by 2015.  We forecast that China will have around 50 billion m3 of gas demand in 2020 that needs to be satisfied by additional imports and Central Asian gas could play a key role is meeting this demand."